11:35
Ondrej Androje
Well, the BRICs (Brasil, Russia, India, China) is going on their way, but let´s focus globaly and get some vision in the future of 2050. Here is some overview where will be the best of 300-trillion USD rise in the world, the GDP now and 2050. Focus on the following emerging markets.
Fast growth countries :
Clearly, this is a question Western policymakers are grappling with right now. If we step away from the cyclicality, there are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive.
What else is important ?
OPEN THE EYES ... AND ...
Yeah we need Education - Democracy - and we need more better attitude
The most potent recipe for growth is a country that scores highly on the fundamentals discussed but currently has low income per capita. These economies should deliver the highest growth in income per capita as they ‘catch up’ with those with similar fundamentals. Economies with poor governance and low education will remain stuck in this low-income trap. This has been the position a number of African nations have found themselves in for so long.
Developed world
Countries in the developed world might be considered to be at the technology ‘frontier’. With income per capita already high, these economies do not get any ‘catch up’ boost so rely on the other variables in the model (education, rule of law, etc) for technological progress to deliver further gains in individual prosperity. That said, there are still large variations across the developed world with real income per capita in Portugal at just over USD11.5k compared with USD37k in the US. Those with similar economic infrastructure to the US but with lower income per capita will therefore get a ‘catch up’ boost. This explains why the model provides higher income per capita forecasts for the likes of Spain and Greece, which may seem implausible given their current difficulties.
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Fast growth countries :
- China
- India
- Philippines
- Egypt
- Malaysia
- Peru
- Bangladesh
- Algeria
- Ukraine
- Vietnam
- Uzbekistan
- Tanzania
- Kazakhstan
- Ecuador
- Ethiopia
- Sri Lanka
- Azerbaijan
- Kenya
- Bolivia
- Jordan
- Uganda
- Ghana
- Paraguay
- Turkmenistan
- Honduras
- Serbia
Clearly, this is a question Western policymakers are grappling with right now. If we step away from the cyclicality, there are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive.
What else is important ?
OPEN THE EYES ... AND ...
Yeah we need Education - Democracy - and we need more better attitude
The most potent recipe for growth is a country that scores highly on the fundamentals discussed but currently has low income per capita. These economies should deliver the highest growth in income per capita as they ‘catch up’ with those with similar fundamentals. Economies with poor governance and low education will remain stuck in this low-income trap. This has been the position a number of African nations have found themselves in for so long.
Developed world
Countries in the developed world might be considered to be at the technology ‘frontier’. With income per capita already high, these economies do not get any ‘catch up’ boost so rely on the other variables in the model (education, rule of law, etc) for technological progress to deliver further gains in individual prosperity. That said, there are still large variations across the developed world with real income per capita in Portugal at just over USD11.5k compared with USD37k in the US. Those with similar economic infrastructure to the US but with lower income per capita will therefore get a ‘catch up’ boost. This explains why the model provides higher income per capita forecasts for the likes of Spain and Greece, which may seem implausible given their current difficulties.
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